13th November 2025
- UKA price increase by over 50% since January
- COP 30 opens in Belem, Brazil
- EU emissions continue to fall
- EU ETS2 delayed
UKA prices increase by over 50% since January
UKAs hit a two year high at £58.55 early last week before closing the week at £55.35 following other energy commodities down on milder weather forecast, however these higher prices are expected to only consolidate not fall significantly. The announcement last week by the EU to delay ETS2 until 2028 brings into question the continued commitment to reduce CO2 emissions whilst Europe continues to experience high energy costs detrimental to industrial competition, the general consumer and only serves to continue offshore emissions.
COP30 opens in Belem, Brazil
As COP opens this week, 2025 is set to be the second or third warmest year on record, driven by record GHG concentrations in the atmosphere rising by 53% above pre-industrial levels. Ocean heat content remained at record levels, glaciers continue to lose mass and extreme weather events continue to cause human and economic losses. Asia is warming faster than the global average with heatwaves becoming more severe, whilst Europe also faces intensifying climate impact. Renewable power continues to grow at pace up 15% in 2024 compared to the previous year at 4,448TW. COP 30 needs to make a significant breakthrough, one which builds upon transparency cooperation and continual improvement if the speed of climate change is to reduce.
EU emissions continue to fall
Emissions of greenhouse gasses have fallen by 37% since 1990 in the EU, keeping it on track to meet its 55% goal by 2030. At the same time the economic growth has been at 71%. The ETS remains the key tool to encourage emissions reductions, which has raised €245 billion in total from the sale of EUA with €39b in 2024 of which €24.4b went into national budgets. ETS emissions from aviation continue to rise up by 15% year on year to over 61 million tonnes of CO2. The introduction of shipping in the ETS has also added a further 90 million tonnes of emissions in the first year.
EU ETS2 delayed
ETS 2 which is set to cover road transport, heating of buildings and small industry due to commence in January 2027 has been delayed by one year to 2028. The delay is due to concerns over high energy costs creating additional social costs on already financially stressed households. The decision could be reversed if energy prices fall in the six months to 30th June 2026. This continued uncertainty creates issues on the financial side about when carbon exposure will commence and continues to weaken the signal to reduce emissions.
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Disclaimer:
This newsletter is intended solely for the information of professional clients, including large corporates and public sector bodies such as universities and hospitals, and eligible counterparties. It does not constitute advice nor should it be relied upon in making decisions regarding the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS). All content within this communication is provided for informational purposes only and has been prepared in accordance with the principle of fair, clear and not misleading information as required by COBS 4.2. Readers should seek their own professional advice when planning to undertake transactions in the UK ETS. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained in this newsletter.
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